Forecast 2025: The ABCs — Apple, Bitcoin and Crypto
"OG Dave" mined Bitcoin back when it was only 10 bucks ...
I like to tell folks that I was there … present and watching … at the Birth of Bitcoin (BTC) … at the Birth of the Cryptocurrency Industry.
Thanks to my good friend and longtime colleague David Zeiler.
Dave and I have known each other — as friends and colleagues — for 25 years … and counting.
We were reporters together at The Baltimore Sun, where (among other things) Dave forged a reputation as one of the savviest observers of Apple Inc. (AAPL).
Later on, I hired him at a fast-growing financial publisher, where he built on his Apple expertise … and where he launched another career that’s made him one of the foremost writers, analysts and thought leaders about Bitcoin. Because not too long after his hiring, he told me about a project in which he’d modified his Apple Mac to “mine” a new type of digital currency. What makes this super impressive: When he started out, he was mining Bitcoin at $10 to $15 each.
Back then, it was still possible for an individual to operate in such a “go-it-alone” manner. That approach also allowed him to see it, experience it and learn about it from the inside — with actual “skin in the game.” That “immersive” approach is super rare — but super effective.
It’s why Dave is the expert he is today.
I’ve interviewed Dave dozens of times in the years since, and I’ll tell you here and now that 90% of his “calls” have been dead-center bullseyes.
Earlier this year, for instance — when Bitcoin was trading in the low $60,000 range — Dave predicted it would breach $100,000 in December. He did this “on the record” in interviews we shared here at Stock Picker’s Corner (SPC). And he was correct.
Name someone else who made that same call and had the courage to also link the target price and the target time frame.
And, as I said, Dave’s done this — with me — dozens of times.
With that track record of success, Dave was my “go-to” expert for the Bitcoin portion of our Forecast 2025 series.
Here’s what he thinks about Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies in general, and Apple and artificial intelligence (AI).
Here’s an edited transcript of our talk.
WPIII (Q): When you look back over 2024, what surprised you the most about the year?
DGZ (A): Well, Bill, you’re right … we sure have been doing this — having these discussions — for a long time.
Every year brings us something special.
This time around … the thing that surprised me the most was that crypto became a significant issue in the 2024 election. And not just President Donald Trump’s full-throated embrace of Bitcoin and crypto. The crypto industry went all-in for this election.
I saw a CNBC report that said crypto groups spent a whopping $245 million on the election, mostly to influence the election of crypto-friendly legislators. To give you an idea of how big this was, CNBC reported that crypto groups were responsible for almost half of all the corporate political spending for this election cycle. No other sector spent anywhere near that much — not even the super-deep-pocketed oil industry.
And guess what? All that spending paid off big time. A website called “Follow the Crypto” tracked that spending as well as the results. I counted 64 congressional races that the PACs (political action committees) had targeted with at least $100,000 in spending. In most cases, the groups were backing pro-crypto candidates, but they also went after several anti-crypto incumbents. The groups achieved their desired result in 52 of those 64 races. They helped get 41 pro-crypto legislators elected to the House and six to the Senate, while helping defeat three crypto-hostile incumbents in the House and two in the Senate.
That’s a hefty amount of political influence, particularly when combined with the incoming Trump Administration’s explicitly pro-crypto position. It will create a massive tailwind for Bitcoin and crypto next year, when all these folks get into office.
WPIII (Q): What did you get right? What did you get wrong?
DGZ (A): [Laughing] Naturally, I’d prefer to start with what I got right. I remember telling you that the soon-to-be launched Bitcoin ETFs were a game-changer that would pull in billions of dollars of fresh investor money.
WPIII (Q): You did. And — as seems to be the case with all our talks like this through the years — you were right.
What you said to expect is just what has happened.
DGZ (A): Since they launched in January, the Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows of more than $1 trillion.
A trillion bucks … just think about that, Bill.
They hold more than 937,000 bitcoins valued at nearly $94 billion. It’s one of the reasons the price of Bitcoin popped past the $100,000 milestone in early December.
Which, now that I brought it up, is another prediction I got right. I told you Bitcoin would at least drive past its 2021 high of about $69,000, with $100,000 possible “if all goes well.” The Bitcoin ETFs, along with the election of Donald Trump and the promise of a much more crypto-friendly government, turbocharged the late-year rally that I had already expected.
As for what I got wrong… I hate to disappoint you, but I can’t think of anything I said a year ago that hasn’t come to pass. Even down to the timing of the rally — I told you the price would go sideways from the halving to the September-October period, when the rally would start ramping up. The current rally started in October. What can I say?
WPIII (Q): With Bitcoin, you’ve done this over and over again — made “calls” and watched them come true.
I still remember — and by “remember” … I can actually see it in my memory — when you walked into my office and told me that you were revving up your computer to start “mining” something called “Bitcoin.”
It’s been very cool to watch this industry unfold from the start … because you put me there at the beginning.
DGZ (A): It’s been fun … and profitable.
WPIII (Q): What about Apple? That’s another area where you are an unrivaled expert.
How well did it do this year? What were the drivers?
DGZ (A): Apple spent the first four months of the year slumping as Wall Street agonized about how far behind Apple was on AI. Then, Apple started talking up Apple Intelligence and gave an impressive demonstration at its World Wide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June. Suddenly, many stock analysts were swooning — so typical of Wall Street. Since May 1, Apple shares are up about 43% — more than double the S&P 500 over the same period. It’s also well ahead of the Nasdaq’s gain of about 23%.
I told you that Apple Intelligence would drive the stock — although it might take a few quarters to see the benefits reflected in sales. That’s because Apple is rolling out its new AI features in staggered waves instead of all at once. In fact, Apple recently released another OS update that added several more AI features. I still believe that — as customers see Apple Intelligence in action, and new features continue to be added — it will drive hardware upgrades and eventually boost services revenue, as well.
I also think Apple has yet to realize its full potential in healthcare. Giving the AirPod Pro 2 the ability to double as a hearing aid is one good example of how Apple can add healthcare features to existing products to increase appeal and boost sales.
WPIII (Q): What was your best investment pick?
DGZ (A): Bitcoin, of course. A year ago, I said people could get a good return on Bitcoin if they bought at the then-current price of about $40,000. At the recent high of $100,000-plus, that’s a 2.5x return — about 150%. Sure, some stocks did better over the past year. But 150% in one year isn’t bad. I’d also like to point out that Bitcoin’s five-year gain is 10 times that — a 1,500% gain.
WPIII (Q): Make a prediction for the New Year …
What do you see? And why?
For Bitcoin? For cryptos in general? For the “climate” for the two.
DGZ (A): The rally for this cycle is now confirmed.
Don’t be distracted by the recent pullbacks.
For the next few months, any time prices drop, it’s a buying opportunity. Now assuming this rally tracks with previous Bitcoin rallies, it will peak somewhere in the August-October time frame.
I can’t guarantee that, of course. But Bitcoin has been true to its cycle for 12 years running. I’m sticking with it until there’s evidence it’s no longer valid.
What you really want to know is how high will Bitcoin go? The shift in political climate will definitely help drive prices higher than they might otherwise have gone. The improved regulatory climate is just one piece of that.
I mean, President-elect Trump is talking about creating a “strategic reserve” of 1 million bitcoins purchased over a five-year period. That, by itself, is hugely bullish. But you can bet that if the U.S. government is buying, other nations will follow suit. Only a handful of countries own any significant amount of Bitcoin now — specifically, China, the U.K., Ukraine, and El Salvador.
But imagine if many others started buying. Remember, the supply of Bitcoin is limited. A large spike in demand will necessarily drive prices up — and quite rapidly.
Plus, the enthusiastic reception to the Bitcoin ETFs have shown that Wall Street now sees Bitcoin as a legitimate investment asset. That’s another major source of ongoing demand.
Given all these positives, the Bitcoin peak for this cycle should – at minimum – get us into the $145,000 to $$150,000 range. I think the neighborhood of $200,000 is most likely. I see a high end price of about $250,000, if the fever really takes hold.
Longer term, like five years and beyond, I’m seeing more and more talk of Bitcoin getting to $1 million. Back in 2017, when Bitcoin was trading at about $3,000, I wrote a story explaining why Bitcoin at $1 million wasn’t nutty. I suggested such a target was possible if Bitcoin came to be used as a global reserve currency. It was speculative then, but I’m seeing serious discussion of the idea now. If it happens, it will create even more demand.
As for other cryptocurrencies, they generally follow Bitcoin’s lead. That means a lot of booming cryptos in 2025. Some will book astronomical gains in short spans of time as the meme-stock/meme-coin crowd jumps on the hot coin of the moment. But legitimate projects will also do well — top cryptos like Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL). Less-known projects will also skyrocket. We’ve seen this happen in previous rallies. In the crypto world it’s known as “alt season” (as in “alternatives to Bitcoin”).
The overall climate will be, in a word, a “mania.”
For those looking to invest in crypto, I always urge caution. Yes, real opportunities will emerge in the larger crypto universe. And buying into a high-potential crypto could be extremely lucrative.
But … be careful. It’s easy to set yourself up for a “rug pull” — where the coin’s creators drive the price up, sell out, and leave retail investors holding near-worthless tokens.
Here’s some crucial advice: Don’t invest in any but the top cryptocurrencies without doing a lot of research. And even then keep your exposure to a minimum. Even with Bitcoin, people should limit it to 5% or so of their portfolios.
By that I mean that you want some exposure, but you don’t want to be reckless.
WPIII (Q): What about for Apple and AI?
DGZ (A): I continue to believe that AI will pay off for Apple. But that payoff will come over a protracted time frame. Apple will continue to roll out fresh Apple Intelligence features over the coming year and beyond. I expect another batch of AI features to be announced at next June’s WWDC. For consumers, the impact of these features will be cumulative.
Plus, as I’ve told you in the past, I think Apple is doing AI the right way by integrating it into their software and building practical features that people will use in their daily lives. They’re still behind on generative AI, but they’ve negated that by integrating ChatGPT into Apple Intelligence.
WPIII (Q): What’s your top investment idea for the New Year? Tell us why? What’s your “investment case” for it?
DGZ (A): Crypto in general. The overall crypto market will be nuts for most of the year. Idiots will make fortunes from meme coins and declare themselves geniuses. Nevertheless, Bitcoin remains my top choice because it is the king of crypto. It doesn’t have as much upside as lesser-known coins, but it’s by far the most dominant and best-established. Bitcoin is where most of the Wall Street money is going. It’s what the government will be buying for this “strategic reserve.” And don’t forget that Bitcoin has a capped supply, which isn’t true of a lot of other cryptocurrencies.
For those who can tolerate a little more risk, however, 2025 is the year you’ll want to dip your toe into non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies. The top cryptos I mentioned earlier are a good place to start — Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA).
I think the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET), a merger of three AI cryptos, could do well. Hivemapper (HONEY), which pays people in crypto to drive around and map roads with dash cams, is another crypto with potential.
While 2025 will be a crypto boom year, don’t get too greedy. If you double your money, sell half. Then you’re playing with house money in case prices crash suddenly — always a possibility when you’re dealing with crypto.
WPIII (Q): Anything else you want to add?
DGZ (A): I’ve talked a lot about next year’s big crypto rally.
But I think it’s important to note that these rallies always end in protracted bear markets. Bitcoin typically drops 50% to 80% over the span of a year following the peak. Other cryptos usually fare worse. From all-time highs, drops in excess of 90% are not uncommon. So my advice, if you do choose to invest in crypto, is to have a strategy for taking profits before things get too ugly.
Watch the calendar. If it’s late in the year, a sharp pullback may be the start of the inevitable bear market. You don’t want to hang on waiting for a rebound that doesn’t come, allowing your monster gains to melt into grim losses.
WPIII (Q): As always, this is great stuff, Dave.
You never disappoint.
Thanks, my friend.
And Happy New Year;
